Rocio Robles
Prior to the start of each season, PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) publishes projections for each Major League team. For the 2022 campaign, the sabermetric system has already produced its results and here is our prediction based on the number of victories each team is projected to achieve.
East Division according to PECOTA projection: Braves (92), Mets (89), Phillies (86), Marlins (80), and Nationals (71).
Despite the departure of Freddie Freeman, the Braves appear to be the best-balanced team in the National League East Division and will surely fight to maintain their crown as Major League champions. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Marcell Ozuna return to a lineup that has added the bat of Matt Olson. The starting pitching is solid and the relief pitching is one of the best in the league.
Assuredly, when PECOTA made its projection, Jacob DeGron and Max Scherzer were healthy. Now, with both starters out indefinitely due to injury, those 89 wins for the Mets look a bit complicated to achieve. In New York, however, they will be fighting for at least a wild card spot.
The Phillies will be fighting the same fight as the Mets and could even be closer to the Braves at the top. Philadelphia will have a fairly potent offense with Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto and the arrival of Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. The starting pitching is solid, but the question remains what their bullpen can do,
PECOTA projects that the Marlins will win 80 games this season. Although it is an attainable number, in such a complicated East Division the arrival of Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler does not seem enough to achieve those numbers. Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez will win some games, but Miami’s roster is a little short.
The division is closed by the Nationals, a team that will have nothing to fight for and whose only attraction will be one of the best hitters in the league: Juan Soto. The Dominican player is one of the circuit’s wonders and this year could see better pitching with the addition of Nelson Cruz to the lineup.
Central Division as projected by PECOTA: Brewers (93), Cardinals (81), Reds (79), Cubs (72), Pirates (66)
While they are considered the favorites to win the Central Division again, the Brewers are sure to have a tough battle against the Cardinals. Milwaukee has one of the best rotations in the league with last season’s Cy Young, Corbin Burnes, as well as Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. In the ninth inning, their offense, which was reinforced by Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Renfroe, remains a question mark.
St. Louis will want to fight for big things in the final season of Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright, so PECOTA’s projected 81 wins will likely fall short. Last season, the Cardinals won 90 games and this year that could be an equal number by keeping the same offensive core of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Tyler O’Neill.
The Reds will fight for third place in the Division with the Cubs. Cincinnati wiped the slate clean with the departure of Sonny Gray, Amir Garrett, Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker. Jonathan India and Joey Votto will be the references of a team that will have little to fight for and does not seem to be set up to reach 79 victories.
In Chicago, last season’s cleanup has already brought new faces to the roster, such as Japan’s Seiya Suzuki. The outfielder will be the figure to watch this season along with new rotation member Marcus Stroman. While the Cubs will not contend for the postseason, they do appear to have the players to win more than 72 games.
The Central Division is closed by the Pirates, a team that, according to PECOTA, will win 66 games in the midst of restructuring. This number looks quite high for a team that will have a lot of young talent and whose star player is outfielder Bryan Reynolds, who is rumored to be traded in the next few days.
West Division as projected by PECOTA: Dodgers (98), Padres (91), Giants (78), Rattlers (72), Rockies (68)
The Dodgers are strong contenders to win 100 games and make it to the World Series for the fourth time in the last six years. Despite losing Corey Seager and Max Scherzer, they managed to sign Freddie Freeman and their rotation remains one of the strongest in the league.
San Diego is aiming to compete for the West Division with the Dodgers, despite the fact that starting without Fernando Tatis Jr., who is injured, may cost them a lot of ground. During the week, the Padres added Sean Manaea to their rotation and those 91 wins projected by PECOTA could be the goal to at least fight for a wild card.
San Francisco must be aware that last season’s 107 wins are hard to repeat, but PECOTA’s projected 78 wins should be easy to surpass. With several key players doubtful to start the season due to injuries, the Giants should be focused on playing at least one wild card game.
PECOTA ranks the Rattlers fourth with 72 wins, a considerable figure considering that last year they were the worst team in baseball at 52-110. For this season, Arizona only renewed Ketel Marte and the core team is the same that lost all these games in 2021.
While the Rockies will not contend for the postseason, their team is better than Arizona and better than PECOTA’s projected 68 wins. Kris Bryant and Randal Grichuk will surely connect for a good amount of home runs at Coors Field and German Marquez will surely get a few wins for a team that should not be at the bottom of the division.
