Camila Sosa
We are just a few days away from the end of the first month of action of Major League Baseball, and, although it has only been played for three weeks in April, the performances of some players have been good enough to move the market of favorites for the American League MVP.
Below we will review some players who have established themselves as contenders after their first impressions, some that have fallen short, and we will also take a look at the list of quotas for each of them for the end of this month. Before getting into context, let’s start with the odds so as to get a full picture of where the market stands .
If you are interested in knowing the outlook regarding the National League MVP, you can also read our opinions here.
American League MVP Odds Market
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAA) | +350 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr (TOR) | +375 |
| Jose Ramírez (CLE) | +900 |
| Mike Trout (LAA) | +900 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | +1000 |
| Wander Franco (TB) | +2000 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | +2500 |
| Luis Robert (CHW) | +2500 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | +4000 |
| Yordan Álvarez (HOU) | +4000 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | +4000 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | +5000 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | +5000 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | +6000 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | +6000 |
| George Springer (TOR) | +6000 |
| Jose Abreu (CHW) | +6000 |
| Xander Bogaerts (BOS) | +6000 |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | +6000 |
| Ty France (SEA) | +7500 |
| Salvador Pérez (KC) | +7500 |
| Tim Anderson (CHW) | +7500 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | +7500 |
Surprises in these First Weeks
Byron Buxton (+1000)
It wasn’t long after Byron Buxton put his name in consideration for the American League MVP fight. With three homers and four RBIs in his first three games, the Minnesota Twins outfielder quickly rose in the market and went from being valued at +3250 to +1200, and by the end of the month he is already at +1000.
The final game of the series against the White Sox between the 23rd and 24th of this month saw Buxton connect for two homers and drive in an absurd five runs — basically shouldering his team’s entire offense on the day. In addition, the second of those homers served to put the White Sox away and had a height of 469 feet, making it the longest walkoff homer in the Statcast era.
Those two slams allowed Buxton to move into the American League home run lead despite playing fewer games than all the other players in the Top 15. The outfielder has a pretty black history with injuries, and missed part of the 2021 campaign due to physical problems, but if he stays healthy and at this same level, to consider him as a possible MVP with this quota is not risky at all.
José Ramírez (+900)
Having José Ramírez as a “surprise” might seem like an insult. The Dominican has been considered a candidate for the American League MVP season after season in recent years due to his great performances in Cleveland. Besides, he has been on the podium in the fight for that distinction in three of the last five campaigns .
However, the third baseman did not appear to be among the leading candidates to take the MVP title this 2022, but quickly reminded us why it is always good to keep him in mind. Jose Ramírez currently leads the American League in RBIs (20), is tied for third in homers (4), is also tied for third in hits (21) and his .350 batting average is sixth best in the league.
Considering the Dominican has such a good odds at the moment, he is never a bad option.
Disappointments
Shohei Ohtani (+350)
The reigning American League MVP has not even been a shadow of his true self this season, but book makers still consider him as the main candidate to win the award.
His pitching has been inconsistent, and it was not until his third and most recent start that we saw the Japanese pitcher at his best, throwing 6 innings and allowing just one hit against the Houston Astros, striking out a total of 12 batters. His bat has yet to wake up, as the phenom is averaging .211/.273/.380 so far with three homers and 9 RBIs.
It’s hard to see what criteria Ohtani is being judged on, considering he’s the only candidate who is both a hitter and a pitcher. If he has a solid season from the mound, but he does not find his feet at batting, is it taken into account when considering him as MVP? In any case, there will always be the Cy Young Award for him.
Kyle Tucker (+4000)
Those who have been following Tucker’s progression in the Major Leagues considered him as a firm candidate to be one of the revelations in this 2022 after an excellent 2021 season in which he averaged .294/.359/.577 with 30 connected homers.
The Astros outfielder has been earning the team’s spotlight since his debut in 2018, and many expected this to be their year. Not so far from reality, at least till now, as Kyle Tucker is hitting for a miserable .169/.246/.271 average and has been falling down the Houston team’s batting order.
However, two of his last three games saw him connect three hits in four at-bats, although the only one where he was hitless in that span saw him strike out three times. There is still time for him to bounce back if he can find some consistency, but the start has not been promising, and his +4000 odds as an American League MVP candidate shows how little faith bookmakers have in him.
