Hiram Moreno
The groups for this year’s 2022-23 UEFA Champions League have already been determined. Some groups are well-balanced; others are rather unpredictable, as victory could go to anyone, and advancing will be quite difficult for some other teams.
The bookmakers have already begun to provide odds not only on the teams with chances of winning the event, but also on how the groups would look after the six rounds of this preliminary stage of competition. This time, our work at JefeBet is to bring this information to you as we briefly analyze a little of what sportsbooks have to offer.
Predictions, Odds and Analysis of the 2022-23 Champions League Group Stage
- Matchday 1: September 6 and 7, 2022
- Matchday 2: September 13 and 14, 2022
- Matchday 3: October 4 and 5, 2022
- Matchday 4: October 11 and 12, 2022
- Matchday 5: October 25 and 26, 2022
- Matchday 6: November 1 and 2, 2022
Pool A
| # | Team | Country | Odds to win the group | Odds to advance to the next round |
| 1 | Ajax | Netherlands | +550 | +100 |
| 2 | Liverpool | England | -210 | -1200 |
| 3 | Napoli | Italy | +700 | +110 |
| 4 | Rangers | Scotland | +1500 | +275 |
Real Madrid winning the Champions League and La Liga in the 2021/22 season ended up going in Liverpool’s favor, as this moved Ajax to Pool 1 and created a group that looks quite accessible for the “Reds”. However, early season impressions could indicate that winning the group could be more difficult than anticipated.
Second place seems to be within anyone’s reach. As regards Napoli, they have started their Serie A season on the right foot; Rangers didn’t reach last season’s Europa League final by accident, and as for Ajax, this is a team that can always spring a surprise.
However, out of the three, Napoli seem to have the best chance of advancing to the round of 16. That would leave third place up for grabs for either Rangers or Ajax, and with Ajax having suffered a number of departures during this transfer window, including players like Sebastian Haller, Lisandro Martínez, and legendary coach Erik ten Hag, we believe the Dutch side will have a difficult campaign in this group stage.
In addition, the Rangers already know what it’s like to beat teams from the Netherlands, having beaten PSV in the playoffs to reach this group stage.
JefeBet Prediction
- Group winner: Liverpool
- Advances to the next round: Napoli
- Relegated to Europa League: Rangers
- Eliminated: Ajax
Pool B
| # | Team | Country | Odds to win the group | Odds to advance to the next round |
| 1 | Porto | Portugal | +330 | -120 |
| 2 | Atlético Madrid | Spain | -105 | -400 |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | Germany | +350 | -120 |
| 4 | Club Brugge | Belgium | +1000 | +333 |
Everything seems to indicate that Atlético Madrid’s biggest competition to top Pool B will be Porto, with both teams standing a very good chance of advancing to the next round considering their opponents.
Bookmakers have Leverkusen at the same odds as Porto to move to the next round, but the German team’s poor start to the Bundesliga season implies they may not even qualify for the Europa League.
For their part, Brugge are an experienced team in this competition and always have a chance of springing a surprise when playing at home. If they can take advantage of their home games—especially against Leverkusen—they could easily book a ticket to the Europa League and leave the Germans at the bottom of the group.
JefeBet Prediction
- Group winner: Atlético de Madrid
- Advances to the next round: Porto
- Relegated to Europa League: Club Brugge
- Eliminated: Leverkusen
Pool C
| # | Team | Country | Odds to win the group | Odds to advance to the next round |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | Germany | -125 | -700 |
| 2 | Barcelona | Spain | +170 | -200 |
| 3 | Inter | Italy | +700 | -125 |
| 4 | Viktoria Plzen | Czech Republic | +10000 | +2500 |
Finally, we’ve reached the dreaded “Group of Death” in this 2022-23 Champions League. Here there are three giants in their respective leagues like Bayern, Barcelona and Inter and they are joined by a Viktoria Plzen that will surely have a mere filler role in the group – unless they manage to pull off a surprise and ruin the night of some of their rivals.
Taking points against weaker opponents will be critical to the big teams’ chances of advancing to the next round, with Bayern Munich being the front-runners to take the lead and advance to the next round.
Barcelona would almost certainly have chosen any opponent over Bayern. This will evoke rather traumatic memories for “culés” fans; however, the clash between the two clubs will have a lot of spice and the added bonus of seeing what Robert Lewandowski is capable of doing when he faces his former team.
Inter will undoubtedly compete with Barcelona for second place, as they must show that they are ready to battle for greatness in this league after multiple dismal continental campaigns, but their team, like Barcelona’s, is far from ideal despite the acquisition of Romelu Lukaku.
We believe Barcelona has a team capable enough to avoid dropping into the Europa League for the second consecutive season, which would leave Inter relegated to the second most important club competition in Europe.
JefeBet Prediction
- Group winner: Bayern Munich
- Advances to the next round: Barcelona
- Relegated to Europa League: Inter
- Eliminated: Viktoria Plzen
Pool D
| # | Team | Country | Odds to win the group | Odds to advance to the next round |
| 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Germany | +600 | +125 |
| 2 | Tottenham | England | -180 | -700 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | Portugal | +600 | +188 |
| 4 | Marseille | France | +750 | +120 |
This is one of the groups that could be anyone’s for the taking. Tottenham Hotspur, however, should have the simplest time qualifying due to their team and the way they started their Premier League season, while “Spurs” are seeking to replicate their 2018/19 season, which saw them reach the final.
Having won the Europa League in the previous season allowed Eitnracht to be in Pool 1; still, it seems very difficult for the German team to match what they did in that campaign and will probably remain as a “one season wonder”, especially after 1. the demonstration they gave against Real Madrid in the European Super Cup; 2. the loss of an important player like Filip Kostic, and 3. having started the Bundesliga without victories in the first three rounds.
However, Eintracht could have a chance of at least reaching the round of 16 when considering their other opponents. Sporting reached the round of 16 in 2021/22 after being drawn in a group as weak as this one, so they should not be overlooked, but they subsequently proved they are no match for the European heavyweights after losing their series to Manchester City 5-0.
For their part, Marseille started their Ligue 1 season in good form and could join Tottenham in the next round. In fact, the bookmakers give them as second favorite to advance, but the ups and downs of the Marseillaise in continental competitions in recent years make them a risky choice.
Apart from Tottenham, predicting the other teams’ positions is practically a shot in the air, so here goes our predictions in what will be a very tight fight for those knockout stage and Europa League tickets.
JefeBet Prediction
- Group winner: Tottenham
- Advances to the next round: Eintracht Frankfurt
- Relegated to Europa League: Marseille
- Eliminated: Sporting CP
Pool E
| # | Team | Country | Odds to win the group | Odds to advance to the next round |
| 1 | AC Milan | Italy | +350 | -300 |
| 2 | Chelsea | England | -250 | -2000 |
| 3 | RB Salzburg | Austria | +1200 | +188 |
| 4 | Dinamo Zagreb | Croatia | +5500 | +1400 |
After this group was announced, everything seemed to indicate that the top two places would be decided from the start. However, the English team could change some people’s minds.
Chelsea’s start to the season has been disastrous, to say the least, and the lack of new players after a summer in which many important players left could mean that the Blues’ tight schedule due to the upcoming World Cup in December will take its toll as they travel around Europe while competing in the world’s toughest league.
This might be dangerous given that they are in the same group as AC Milan, who, given the circumstances, are the major contenders to top the group and put their disastrous 2021/22 performance in this competition behind them. They could also have a worthy opponent in RB Salzburg, who made it to the round of 16 in last year’s Champions League and even stood up to Bayern in the last 16 (at least in the first leg).
However, Chelsea could have what it takes to at least qualify as runners-up if they can get their act together soon and make some signings, which would leave Salzburg trailing in a Europa League where they could compete more comfortably.
What about Dinamo Zagreb? They struggled more than their fair share to reach this group stage, having faced three preliminary qualifying rounds, with five of the six matches in those series seeing them allow goals against lower-ranked teams. Considering all of this, we wish them a happy vacation at the end of this group stage and good luck in their quest for a 24th Croatian league title.
JefeBet Prediction
- Group winner: AC Milan
- Advances to the next round: Chelsea
- Relegated to Europa League: RB Salzburg
- Eliminated: Dinamo Zagreb
Pool F
| # | Team | Country | Odds to win the group | Odds to advance to the next round |
| 1 | Real Madrid | Spain | -370 | -5000 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | Germany | +550 | -250 |
| 3 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Ukraine | +5500 | +1000 |
| 4 | Celtic | Scotland | +1700 | +200 |
If Group D could be anyone’s game, this Group F seems to be the most predictable of all. Aside from jokes about suspicious help in the draw, no one can argue that Real Madrid has a difficult group to retain its title, and finishing first should be a cakewalk for the “Merengues” barring a serious setback.
Second position seems to belong to RB Leipzig, who will want to build on this in order to duplicate their Champions League season of 2019/20, in which they reached the semi-finals. Despite the fact that they have yet to win a game in the Bundesliga, Timo Werner’s homecoming will most certainly give them hope.
Celtic and Shakhtar will compete for the final Europa League ticket through third place, and in a normal situation, we would give Shakhtar that spot, except that the club’s lack of competitive action due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent suspension of their league means that the team lacks the necessary rhythm to compete at the highest level.
JefeBet Prediction
- Group winner: Real Madrid
- Advances to the next round: RB Leipzig
- Relegated to Europa League: Celtic
- Eliminated: Shakhtar Donetsk
Pool G
| # | Team | Country | Odds to win the group | Odds to advance to the next round |
| 1 | Manchester City | England | -370 | -2500 |
| 2 | Sevilla | Spain | +1000 | +125 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | Germany | +600 | -163 |
| 4 | Copenhagen | Denmark | +4900 | +1000 |
Like Liverpool, the other English powerhouse, Manchester City, has an accessible group that could see them finish first without any problems. Still, it will be up to Guardiola to prove that the Citizens have what it takes to win the competition once they reach the knockout stage after the bookmakers have given City as the main candidate to win the tournament.
With first place already defined in theory, the question is who might be able to claim the other place in the knockout phase, with Sevilla and Dortmund fighting for second place, while Copenhagen are likely to be relegated to last place.
Dortmund’s defensive weaknesses could be their main Achilles’ heel, especially when they have to face City and their former striker Erling Haaland. For their part, Sevilla didn’t start their season in a good way by failing to win in the first two rounds of La Liga, but Julen Lopetegui’s experience could be enough for the Andalusian side to reach second place – although third place and dropping into the Europa League would surely not look too bad either.
JefeBet Prediction
- Group winner: Manchester City
- Advances to the next round: Sevilla
- Relegated to Europa League: Borussia Dortmund
- Eliminated: Copenhagen
Pool H
| # | Team | Country | Odds to win the group | Odds to advance to the next round |
| 1 | PSG | France | -263 | -2500 |
| 2 | Juventus | Italy | +237 | -400 |
| 3 | Benfica | Portugal | +1000 | +225 |
| 4 | Maccabi Haifa | Israel | +12000 | +2200 |
Group H is another interesting group in this 2022-23 Champions League, as PSG will face good competition from Juventus and Benfica; the absence of Darwin Núñez, though, could weigh on the latter after the striker was vital in the Lusitanians’ path to the quarterfinals last season.
Juventus hasn’t been the powerhouse it once was, but the team has made a good impression this season and appears to have improved from last year, which could be enough to get them second place in the group. However, they will need to get the best possible results from their clashes with Benfica to avoid any scares.
What about Maccabi Haifa? Just like Santa, they aren’t real. All jokes aside, the Israelis should be grateful to be here since a 90th-minute Red Star own goal in the second leg of the playoffs earned them a spot in this group stage, and now they can enjoy an all-expenses-paid vacation across Europe before going home to complete their domestic league.
JefeBet Prediction
- Group winner: PSG
- Advances to the next round: Juventus
- Relegated to Europa League: Benfica
- Eliminated: Maccabi Haifa
