Rocio Robles
Prior to the start of each season, PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) publishes projections for each Major League team. For the 2022 campaign, the sabermetric system has already produced its results and here is our prediction based on the number of victories each team is projected to achieve.
East Division according to PECOTA projection: Yankees (99), Blue Jays (91), Red Sox (86), Tampa Bay (85) and Orioles (61).
Although the Yankees had 92 wins last season, the New York team does not seem to have the tools to reach 99 wins in such a tight division. During the preseason, they retained Anthony Rizzo and brought in only Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Josh Donaldson.
In the case of the Blue Jays, putting them so far behind the Yankees seems disrespectful to a team that, on paper, is favored to win the division thanks to a powerful offense that welcomes Matt Chapman this year and that will play the entire campaign in a hitter-friendly park like the Rogers Centre.
The Red Sox will also be fighting for an important position by having a ruthless offense joined by Trevor Story. However, they will need to score a lot of runs to win games, as their pitching staff appears to be one of the worst in the league.
Tampa Bay once again starts the season looking like a team with a ton of doubts. However, two seasons ago they reached the World Series and, last year, they won 100 games with a payroll similar to the current one. Kevin Cash knows how to make magic with very little.
The list is closed by the Orioles, a team that will once again be a mere observer and is unlikely to reach the 61 wins projected by PECOTA playing in a division as complicated as the East.
Central Division as projected by PECOTA: White Sox (95), Twins (86), Guardians (76), Royals (69) and Tigers (67)
The White Sox have everything to comfortably win the Central Division again. According to PECOTA, they should win 95 games, a figure that may tend to increase since they are visibly superior to their rivals and despite the departure of Craig Kimbrel. The offense is one of the best in the league and their starting rotation is solid.
In the Division, the Twins don’t seem to have a chance to catch the White Sox, but with the arrival of Carlos Correa, Sonny Gray and Gary Sanchez, some wild card spot could be in the organization’s sights.
The Guardians will face their first season with a new name in 2022 and this one doesn’t promise to start in the best way. Beyond having the likes of Shane Bieber, Emmanuel Clase and Jose Ramirez, Cleveland’s roster is far from contending in the Division and Ramirez is likely to leave the team before the trade deadline.
While the Royals don’t seem to have the pieces to pull off a shocker either, the 69-win projection given by PECOTA doesn’t seem to be fair to a team that reinforced its pitching with Zack Greinke and Amir Garrett, as well as the power of Venezuelan Salvador Pérez.
For PECOTA, the Central Division is closed by the Tigers, a young team that won 77 games last season and should be around that number by 2022, not the projected 67. Detroit has signed Eduardo Rodriguez to be their ace in the rotation, has added shortstop Javier Baez and has left prospect Spencer Torkelson on the big team.
Central Division as projected by PECOTA: Astros (90), Angelinos (88), Mariners (83), Athletics (71), Rangers (70)
Despite the exit of Carlos Correa, the Astros continue to maintain the same successful core team of the past few seasons and are poised to win the American League West Division once again. Although this year they may face a little more opposition from their rivals, Dusty Baker’s ninth team should win at least 90 games.
Close behind the Astros are the Anaheim Angelinos, a team that will feature a recovering Mike Trout and superstar Shohei Ohtani. Pitching remains the only question mark for the team, which is hoping that new acquisition Noah Syndergaard can perform as he did in his best years with the New York Mets.
In third place, PECOTA places the Seattle Mariners, a team that was left out of the postseason on the last day of last season and that, during the preseason, added interesting pieces such as Cy Young Robbie Ray or hitters Eugenio Suárez and Jesse Winker. Seattle’s bullpen will be the secret weapon, same as outfielder and prospect Julio Rodriguez.
For the fourth position, the system places the Athletics with 71 laurels. This are quite high and rather kind numbers for a team that has been completely dismantled and will no longer have Matt Olson, Matt Chapman or Sean Manaea, to name a few. Oakland will not be fighting for anything this year and reaching 70 wins will be a real accomplishment.
The Rangers, meanwhile, could be one of the shockers of the Division and the American League after spending around $500 million in free agency. Texas should overcome its pitching problems with a good offense led by Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Mitch Garver and Cuban Adolis Garcia.
