Henry Roldán
The Chargers vs Jaguars, two of the pleasant surprises of this 2023 NFL postseason, will face off in the first Wild Card game of the American Conference next Saturday.
After a difficult first half, Los Angeles won five of its last seven games to earn the AFC Wild Card, while Jacksonville made a historic comeback by winning seven of its last nine games to take the lead in the AFC South.
Without further ado, JefeBet brings you the best preview of the stellar matchup between Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars.
Predictions and Betting Preview for the Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars AFC Wild Card Game on January 14, 2023
- Where: TIAA Bank Field – Jacksonville, Florida
- When: Saturday, January 14, 2023 – 8:15 PM E.T.
Odds provided by BetMGM.
[the_ad_placement id=”sports-nfl”]
Betting on the Los Angeles Chargers
- Season record: 10-7 (1st wild card – 5th AFC seed).
- BetMGM Spread: -1.0.
- BetMGM Moneyline: (-115).
- BetMGM Over/Under: 47.5.
In the second half of the season, the Chargers put their inconsistencies behind them to become the first wild card in the tough American Conference and one of the hottest teams at the end of the regular round.
Backed by a great aerial display by quarterback Justin Herbert, the Los Angeles team finished the season just one game under 200 total passing yards and were third in the league with 4,584 on the campaign.
Such stats, added to the 26 touchdown passes by the young QB, were the antidote to overcome the problems that had plagued the ground game all year; such problems left them second to last in average yards per rush (3.8) and total rushing yards (1,524).
The Chargers have a few more issues on the defensive side of the ball, but it was an improvement in this area that decided the outcome of the season. Prior to their 28-31 loss to the Denver Broncos, the Los Angeles team didn’t allow any opponent to score more than 17 points during their four-game winning streak. This was an impressive feat considering they were 11th in points allowed with 384.
It certainly helped that the Chargers are the second-fewest penalties team in the circuit with just 80, while in the red zone they are in the top 10 by allowing touchdowns on just 52.1% of visits. However, when it comes to defending on the ground, like their offense, Los Angeles is one of the worst in the league as no one allowed more yards per riush than they did with 5.4. Moreover, their 2,478 rushing yards allowed were the fifth-highest figure in the circuit.
Betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars
- Season record: 9-8 (AFC South Champion – 4th seed AFC).
- BetMGM Spread: +1.0.
- BetMGM Moneyline: (-105).
- BetMGM Over/Under: 47.5.
With five straight victories, the Jaguars qualified for the postseason in first place in the AFC South. Doug Pederson’s arrival on the Jaguars’ bench may have marked a before and after in the organization’s history, and this feat might be the first of his legacies.
The Jaguars were hoping to escape placing last in their division after entering their bye week with a 3-7 record following a defeat to the Chiefs in Week 10. However, the team was able to reverse the negative trend thanks to a reasonably balanced offense that was guided by quarterback Trevor Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne.
In this way, Jacksonville finished the campaign with an average of 5.7 yards gained per play, seventh best in the league, and its offensive line had the fifth-fewest QB sacks with just 28. Moreover, they ranked in the top 15 offenses regarding total rushing and passing yards, as well as rushing and passing touchdowns.
On the defensive side the Jaguars are also quite balanced and in the last three weeks opponents only scored 22 total points against them. On the field, they are quite strong, and their specialty is inflicting losses on opponents, despite the fact that they frequently struggle with passes, which is not a good thing before playing Justin Herbert.
For the campaign, they finished fourth in turnovers with 22 and were second in fumbles recovered with 13, one of them last Saturday against the Titans in the fourth period, which they returned all the way to the end zone to win the game.
JefeBet Prediction
The Chargers vs Jaguars mirror each other’s strengths and weaknesses, making this game the closest of Wild Card week in the American Conference.
While Los Angeles is slightly superior to Jacksonville regarding passes and will face a very inconsistent secondary, the Jaguars’ ground game, which far exceeds that of the Chargers, is expected to have an easy day against a lousy opposing ground defense.
The Chargers also lost the fewest fumbles of the campaign with just 19, while the Jaguars matched the Patriots this year as the team with the most points scored after a turnover with 111.
With that said, home advantage will play an important role in this match. Although in eight of the last 10 games between the two teams the Los Angeles team came out on top, this year the Jaguars beat the Chargers 38-10 in a convincing manner on the road. Now, they will host them at home, where they left a 5-2 record; meanwhile, their opponent had a 5-4 record on the road.
Prediction: Jaguars to win (LA 20 – JAX 24).
