Henry Roldán
The AFC Wild Card week of the 2023 NFL postseason will feature two duels between teams in the same division, and one of them is next Sunday’s Dolphins vs Bills.
In a close matchup that saw the Dolphins defeat the Jets and the Patriots lose to the Bills, Miami advanced as the third wild card into the American Conference. Meanwhile, Buffalo consolidated its title as AFC East champion with seven consecutive wins.
Without further ado, at JefeBet we bring you the best preview of the stellar match between the Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills.
Predictions and Betting Preview for the Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills AFC Wild Card Game on January 15, 2023
- Where: Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, New York.
- When: Sunday, January 15, 2023 – 1:00 PM E.T.
Odds provided by BetMGM.
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Betting on the Miami Dolphins
- Season record: 9-8 (3rd wild card – 7th AFC seed).
- BetMGM Spread: +10.5.
- BetMGM Moneyline: (+425).
- BetMGM Over/Under: 44.5
After a flawless first half and a forgettable second half of the season with five straight losses that put them on the verge of disaster, the Dolphins managed to make the postseason with a lot of sweat.
Between the multiple injuries to Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater, Miami’s powerful offense was unable to get on track in many important moments and, as an example, in three of the last six games of the season they failed to score more than 17 points. However, their early records were so good that they finished the year fourth in total yards (3,992) and TD passes (27) in the league.
For Miami, it is essential that this attack route works, something logical if we take into account that they were the eighth team with the fewest yards gained on the ground and only scored 12 rushing touchdowns. The primary issue is that they might have to rely heavily on running backs against Buffalo, as it’s uncertain whether Tagovailoa will be cleared to play and whether Bridgewater, who has right hand finger soreness, will be fully recovered.
On the defensive side of the ball, things change radically since the Dolphins have a great ground defense; however, they are one of the worst in the league regarding passes. This is certainly bad news for a secondary that gave up the sixth most passing yards (3,992) and the seventh most touchdown passes (27) and thatnow has to measure itself against one of the league’s best QBs.
Meanwhile, regarding the ground game, the 103.1 yards allowed per game and 4.1 allowed per carry were the fourth-best figures in the NFL. Additionally, they only allowed 15 touchdowns and the opponents scored 98 first downs, the sixth-lowest number in the entire circuit.
Betting on the Buffalo Bills
- Season record: 13-3 (AFC East Champion – 2nd seed AFC).
- BetMGM Spread: -10.5.
- BetMGM Moneyline: (+600).
- BetMGM Over/Under: 44.5
For the third consecutive campaign, the Bills enter the postseason as AFC East champions and this time they do so as one of the top three betting favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Despite a somewhat shaky start, Buffalo finished with a 13-3 record on the strength of eight consecutive wins and the misfortune of not being able to play their game against the Bengals due to Damar Hamlin’s accident. This prevented them from keeping the first place in the American Conference that they had held up to that point.
Like the Dolphins, the main weapon of the Bills’ offense is the aerial game displayed by Josh Allen, the same one that led the team to be second in points scored (455), first downs gained (367) and touchdown passes completed (35). Buffalo’s offense is also a hurricane on the ground, and its 5.2 yards per rush was the second-best figure in the entire circuit, which makes it more dangerous than Miami.
Performance is not worsened when we switch to the defensive side. In fact, the Bills’ 286 points conceded are the second-fewest in the NFL, and they were second in the league in terms of opponent touchdowns allowed in the red zone with just 44.9% of opportunities.
If we had to talk about an area of improvement for the Bills, especially before hosting Miami, it is their pass defense, an area in which they still managed to finish within the top 15 in the league in terms of total yards and touchdowns allowed. Buffalo was also among the top seven teams against the ground attack and was fourth in fumbles recovered with 27.
JefeBet Prediction
While the Dolphins split honors with the Bills this season and lost by only three points in the game they lost, it’s very likely that this Sunday they will face them for the first time without Tua Tagovailoa.
The quarterback is the main reason why Miami ranked among the best passing offenses in the circuit, and without him on the gridiron, the matchup looks pretty uneven.
In the final matchup, Buffalo finished with 446 total yards and 32 points against a weak Dolphins secondary, while Miami could only stay in the game because of Tagovailoa’s passing. Without that plus, the Bills defense should have a pretty quiet afternoon.
To that we can add that Miami dropped a 3-6 mark on the road, the Bills finished with a 6-1 record at home and the Dolphins have a 3-7-1 record playing against the spread in the last 11 meetings in Buffalo.
Prediction: Bills spread (MIA 17 – BUF 30).
